March 26th - Gore Report Bits

No Ceasefire, for now. - In yesterday’s Bits, I stated I was skeptical about a ceasefire with Iran happening so soon and was not sold on Wednesday’s rally and now, here we are. The optimism that lifted stocks yesterday was replaced by the reality of the persistent geopolitical risk. As diplomatic hopes were tempered, we saw a violent reversal in sentiment that underscores just how fragile this economic environment truly is. 🚀💥

WTI Crude Oil - WTI Crude gapped up at the open and held those gains as the geopolitical risk price premium came back after relief yesterday. It looks like the market bracing for a much longer period of supply uncertainty and elevated energy costs. For a market that was tentatively pricing in a resolution 24 hours ago, this move back toward the mid-$90s is a reality check. Energy is once again the primary driver of volatility. ⛽️

Tech Liability Drag - While the tension with Iran provided the spark for the broader market sell-off, the Tech Liability Shock from yesterdays court ruling against META & Google, acted as a massive internal weight for the Nasdaq. It wasn't just a side story; it was a fundamental repricing of the sector's risk profile. Now will these companies appeal and win? Most likely. However this opens the floodgates for more lawsuits/legal action. 🤖

Bond Yields Up - I’ve been talking about the 10 year yield on here all week. The 10-year Treasury yield didn't just drift higher today, it surged to 4.41%, its highest level of the year as the "inflation floor" is dropping out. This move was the direct result of the move we saw in energy and tech. With WTI Crude oil approaching $100 again, the bond market is aggressively pricing in a higher rate environment, effectively killing any hope for summer interest rate cuts.💵

Sluggish Markets - We are no longer navigating a temporary pullback. we are now witnessing a pivot to capital preservation. When the cost of energy surges growth projections become secondary to balance sheet stability (CASH). The message is clear cash rules and is king. 📉